We’re baaack! Kicking off this year’s look ahead to the new season, we focus today on the clubs who’ll be competing in League 2 this year and – because everyone likes a prediction – pass judgement on where they might finish. Then, tomorrow and Wednesday, we put the spotlight on League 1 and the Championship respectively before spending the rest of the time leading up to August 3 offering forth some predictions for the campaign which in some way mirror our annual end of season awards posts [1].
Accrington Stanley
James Beattie’s never really come across as management material and it doesn’t seem all that outrageous to suggest that his time as a gaffer might well be short-lived. Most particularly in this case that’s because the job he’s taken on seems like a herculean task, as evidenced by previous managers Paul Cook and Leam Richardson lasting all of eight and six months in the post respectively, with both opting to leave the Crown Ground in order to join League 2 rivals Chesterfield (the latter choosing a number two gig ahead of staying on as Stanley’s manager). Of course, you can’t blame Beattie for giving it a go – at this stage of his career, any contract offer might well be his last – but this chalice seems like a poisoned one; Beattie having inherited a squad, now shorn of two of its best players in Lee Molyneux and Rommy Boco, which barely survived last year. A fiery baptism indeed.
Verdict: Looking Over Their Shoulders
AFC Wimbledon
After two seasons of struggle back in the Football League, the Dons remain a work in progress but there’s room for quiet optimism down in south west London. Fresh from keeping the club in the 72, Wimbledon’s not-so-new manager Neal Ardley is in the midst of introducing a new kind of passing style – whatever that means – and as a consequence has spent most of the summer continuing the reshuffle of the squad he inherited from his predecessor Terry Brown. The fact remains, however, that with one eye on a ground move this is a particularly tightly-run ship and although the Dons may be well-placed geographically to bring in loan signings, a year of steady progress is probably all that can be hoped for.
Verdict: Middle of the Road
Bristol Rovers
Like Coventry, Bristol Rovers are one of those spectacular underperformers whose sustained ability to drawn in decent support seems more remarkable every year. But that could all be about to change if the club’s planned move to a new stadium at the University of the West of England goes through (as it looks like it will [2]). It can’t come soon enough. Like the Withdean in Brighton, The Memorial Stadium has always seemed like a staging post on the way to something more suitable and Rovers’ chances of getting back to their natural berthing place, somewhere between the nether regions of the Championship and top of League 1, seem dependent on a development of this kind. Until this happens, the club will have to endure limited resources, as exemplified by manager John Ward’s small – and youthful – playing squad. A run at promotion this year would have been more than conceivable such was the form of Ward’s side in the second half of last term, but a series of long-term injuries to key players over pre-season suggests that a year of middling form, combined with the commencement of the UWE move and the emergence of one or two youngsters (and the smart money’s probably on striker Ellis Harrison to make the biggest name for himself), will in all likelihood be the sum total of supporters’ hopes for 2013-14.
Verdict: Middle of the Road
Burton Albion
Still led by this site’s current Manager of the Season [3], 2013-14 should prove to be another happy one for the Brewers. True, the top guns may have deserted Albion with Calvin Zola and Jacques Maghoma joining Aberdeen and Sheffield Wednesday respectively, but manager Gary Rowett and his assistant Kevin Summerfield – a former championship winner in this league with Plymouth – have recruited well, fending off a host of clubs to bring the likes of Rene Howe and Adam Reed, players who have proven more than capable of performing at this level already. One wonders whether traces of the brittleness that characterised last year’s 7-1 drubbing at Port Vale in April remain but in a league where just a few key men can make the difference Burton – now rightly regarded by Rowett as one of the league’s big boys [4] – should be able to at least match last season’s top 7 finish.
Verdict: Automatic
Bury
Where to start? Of all 24 teams playing in League 2 this year, Bury might just be the darkest horses. Given the tumultuous background to the season, one would probably bet on a bottom half finish for the Shakers but, just as Micky Adams showed with Port Vale last year, all it takes is a bit of nous and a good contact book to make an impact in this division. Agricultural his approach may be, but Kevin Blackwell certainly has both. Whether the infrastructure will be in place off the pitch in order to help oil the wheels is harder to tell. Details on the specifics of the club’s new ownership are in short supply, but lead man Stewart Day has been anything but elusive since his chairmanship was announced at the end of May, communicating directly to fans on a number of issues including why key player David Worrall was sold to Rotherham, and how the club plans to put – cringe alert – a ‘worldwide scouting system’ [5] in place. Stockport supporters in particular will attest to the fact that a big mouth shouldn’t be mistaken for any form of credibility, though, and although former chairman Brian Fenton has lent his support to the new owners [6] a man who played a role in what was yet another sorry episode for the club may not exactly be the best of judges.
Verdict: Middle of the Road
Cheltenham Town
Is this the year that Cheltenham’s steady and impressive progress over the past few seasons begins to fade? Manager Mark Yates has already proven himself several times over since his arrival in late 2009, leading the Robins to top 7 finishes in both 2011-12 and 2012-13, but as good a wheeler-and-dealer as Yates has been, he’ll have some job replacing pivotal players Marlon Pack and Kaid Mohamed, who are both set to feature a division above this season. True, quality has been replaced by quality; Jamie Cureton, Ashley Vincent and Matt Richards just a few of the players Yates has lined up to try to nudge Town on that extra mile. But none of the new signings quite possess the same elán as those who came before them and one wonders whether Yates might finally be undone by budgetary restrictions this year.
Verdict: Chasing the Play-Offs
Chesterfield
Now here, on the surface of things, is a team that should do well. Having shown quality in patches last season, Chesterfield will be expected to build on 2012-13’s near play-off miss after enjoying a first pre-season under their popular manager Paul Cook, who’s now been reunited with his former number two Leam Richardson. It’s been a pretty solid one as they go, with the Spireites showing well in a win against Huddersfield and a draw against Forest, and in terms of personnel the squad looks reasonably strong. It’s an experienced set of players as well with the likes of Jimmy Ryan, Ritchie Humphreys and Gary Roberts supplementing what was already a good group. But confidence can be a fragile thing and, as a side which will be widely tipped to finish strongly, this is one of the few clubs in the division who will go into the campaign under pressure. Promotion should be a distinct possibility if they can cope with it.
Verdict: Automatic
Dagenham & Redbridge
It’s been a seriously unremarkable summer at Daggers, with very little to report on in the way of new signings. Since an end of season nip and tuck – which saw Sam Williams, Kevin Maher and Dominic Green depart – a succession of trialists have attempted to earn a deal at the club but to date only Afolabi Obafemi, who’s made all of nine appearances in the Football League, has convinced manager Wayne Burnett that he’s worth a pop. Otherwise, the rookie manager appears to have been either gazumped or used as a back-up plan if a deal doesn’t come off elsewhere, such is the skimpiness of Dagenham’s playing budget. A 20% cut of Dwight Gayle’s (surely excessive?) £6m transfer from Posh to Palace will offer a timely boost to the club’s coffers as Burnett looks to hoover up some of the better free agents that are still hawking for a deal, but the serious nosebleed that met John Still’s departure to Luton last season suggests that anything other than relegation would be a minor achievement for Burnett in his first full season as a manager.
Verdict: Looking Over Their Shoulders
Exeter City
Times are hard at City. Before May was out Paul Tisdale – now, incredibly, the second longest-serving manager behind Arsène Wenger in the professional game in England and Wales [7] – had already played his part in cross-code rivals Exeter Chiefs’ 2013-14 season ticket drive by announcing that City were unlikely to sign more than one player over the summer [8]. He’s remained true to his word and, if anything, has gone even further to emphasise his belief in sustainably-sourced football squads, withdrawing a contract offer [9] that had tentatively been made to full-back Steve Tully earlier in the summer. Green shoots are emerging in the form of youngsters Jimmy Keohane, Jake Gosling and Jamie Reid but the Grecians appear to be markedly weaker than in previous seasons and, without the goals of Cheltenham-bound Jamie Cureton, can probably hope for nothing better than mid-table.
Verdict: Middle of the Road
Fleetwood Town
After much huff and puff, Fleetwood’s debut Football League season was an underwhelming one in the end. Having spent big on names like Damien Johnson and Jon Parkin, more was expected of the Cod Army, and chairman Andy Pilley demonstrated as much mid-way through the season by dispensing of manager Micky Mellon as form dipped. Graham Alexander was drafted in from Preston’s Youth team and things only got worse; of his 26 games in charge, Fleetwood won just seven times and ended the season in the bottom half. Pilley’s stayed with Alexander for now, however, rubber stamping a host of new signings with household lower division players such as Steven Schumacher, Matty Blair, Mark Roberts and Jeff Hughes arriving on the Fylde coast. Whereas the onus a year ago seemed to be on bringing in players who’d performed further up the pyramid, there’s a sense this time around that these are the types who’ll fare better at this level. A morale boosting 4-0 win against Preston on Saturday is a sign, perhaps, that the club’s upwards trajectory is set to continue for at least another season.
Verdict: Automatic
Hartlepool United
The big news at Hartlepool this summer has been the arrival of new manager Colin Cooper and his assistant Craig Hignett. The lack of activity otherwise will have disappointed fans, who will have had hopes of an overhaul in Cooper’s playing squad after having to put up with a complete and utter stinker of a season last time out. To date, however, only journeyman winger Jack Compton has turned up and it seems as though Cooper’s transfer policy will largely revolve around who former club Middlesbrough are willing to put out on loan at this level. Pools are probably better than their form last season suggested, but it’s hard to predict anything other than a year of building new foundations, really.
Verdict: Middle of the Road
Mansfield Town
Having won the Conference title last time out – which, as Gary Andrews reported a few months ago, is no mean feat these days [10] – it’s largely been a case of tinkering with what’s already proven to be a strong group at Mansfield. Or is there more to the lack of activity at Field Mill than meets the eye? Indeed, even though key man Matt Green – whose exit was widely expected – departed for Championship football at Birmingham some three weeks ago a replacement striker is yet to arrive. More worryingly still, two of the club’s former directors and founders of AFC Mansfield [11] Steve Hymas and Andy Saunders are demanding that owner John Radford repay hefty outstanding loans [12]. In the centre of the row is botoxed CEO and wife of Radford, Carolyn, who’s taken to Facebook to air her grievances against the duo. Against this messy backdrop, manager Paul Cox seems to be running a pretty tight ship and, if his success to date with the club is anything to go by, then the Stags should be reasonably comfortable at this level. But, sooner or later, one wonders whether the club’s unsavoury off-field history might catch up with them.
Verdict: Middle of the Road
Morecambe
Times are hard at Morecambe. Although crowds at the Globe Arena have never been huge, the last few seasons have seen the club really struggle to entice locals and despite trying to give tickets away [13] last year’s 1,954 average was down almost 1,000 heads on Morecambe’s mean attendance on their arrival in the Football League in 2007-08. As a result, Jim Bentley’s playing budget has suffered and having only been able to offer his out of contract players deals based on reduced terms, the Shrimps’ manager has seen first-teamers Gary McDonald, Lewis Alessandra, Jordan Burrow, Nick Fenton and Will Haining all exit in order to try their luck elsewhere. Replacements largely consist of either young players discarded from further up the divisions or those trying their luck after stints in the non-league, so it’s likely to be a difficult season for the club, who will have to rely even more than ever on striker Kevin Ellison, particularly since improving young forward Jack Redshaw has been ruled out until 2014 with injury [14].
Verdict: Looking Over Their Shoulders
Newport County
The Exiles, back in the Football League for the first time in 25 years, look like a good addition to the division. Led by the well-regarded Justin Edinburgh – who’s earned his stripes via stints as manager at various non-league sides – the Newport squad possesses a nice blend of youth and experience and most of the side have played in the League at some stage in the past. It’s also a good time to be a side at this level in South Wales; in years gone by, Newport were competing with Cardiff and Swansea for supporters and players, but following the huge strides made by both clubs in recent seasons the Exiles are well-positioned as a non-threatening alternative to the two, and if good relationships can be fostered might well be used as an outpost for up-and-coming youth team players [15].
Verdict: Middle of the Road
Northampton Town
Until Saturday’s 1-0 friendly defeat to Posh, Cobblers had been banging them in, winning their opening two games 5-1 and 7-0. Unfortunately, opposition came in the form of United Counties League [16] sides Northampton Sileby Rangers and Cogenhoe United, and half the players that Aidy Boothroyd had been fielding were trialists, making a prediction of where Northampton might finish tricky even at this late stage of the summer. But, as many variables as there are in this particular forecast, you know you’re going to get certain things with a Boothroyd side, whoever lines up, and Cobblers should once again be competitive. Any side, though, that is considering offering Kevin Amankwahh, Liam Dickinson and Darren Purse contracts can’t be taken too seriously, although there’s very little chance that Northampton will fall back to where they were when Boothroyd arrived in 2011. Another solid season looms, but Cobblers should once again be beatable when it comes down to it.
Verdict: Chasing the Play-Offs
Oxford United
For a short time at the beginning of last season Chris Wilder was the next big thing. His Oxford side had started the season strongly, winning their first three games and overcoming Bournemouth in the League Cup, and Coventry were apparently interested in bringing Wilder to the Ricoh to replace Andy Thorn. In the end, the Sky Blues opted for Mark Robins, Oxford went on a horrible run, losing all six of their league games in September, and supporters got back to questioning whether Wilder was really the man to take the Yellows to the next level. As it was, Wilder ploughed on and Oxford managed a respectable finish in 9th place as a number of the clubs ahead of and around the Us crumbled away. Having since had a major clear-out [17], it seems that Wilder’s been briefed to cut his cloth although the marquee signing of Dave Kitson hints at some remaining trace of ambition on behalf of the board. However, with Kitson’s career having been on a downward spiral since he first departed Thames Valley rivals Reading in 2008, his capture may not prove to be all that significant and although Wilder’s other signings haven’t been too shabby it’s difficult to see how Oxford can really push on until they finally rid themselves of their association with Firoz Kassam once and for all.
Verdict: Chasing the Play-Offs
Plymouth Argyle
For the first time in years, Argyle fans are looking forward to the new season. Manager John Sheridan, who’s barely put a step out of place since his arrival at the then 24th placed Pilgrims in January, has committed to a new three-year deal; a stronger squad is slowly being pieced together; the club’s backroom staff has been significantly bolstered, both at first and academy team level; and a CEO is in place for the first time in 4 years. But underlying all of this slow and delicate progress is a fissure in the fanbase, caused by the hotly-debated plans for the new Mayflower Stand within the wider ‘Higher Home Park Development [18]’ which will result in a capacity of well under 18,000 after segregation. Many are happy to plough on ahead and Get It Built but some, quite rightly, are questioning owner James Brent’s real motives and wondering whether what seems like a pretty underwhelming stand on the face of things is worth the price of an Odeon cinema and a Nandos et al adjacent to the ground in Central Park. Will this detract from the strides being made on the pitch? Quite possibly.
Verdict: Middle of the Road
Portsmouth
Pompey will of course be every bookie’s favourite for promotion ahead of the new season. They’re Pompey! They’ve sold 10,000 season tickets! They’re Pompey! But fans have never won a league by level of support alone and after all the suffering and angst of the last few years you wonder whether a year of mid-table football – allowing the club to get to grips with its new form of ownership – might be better for Portsmouth in the long run. Such a scenario might well be on the cards. Although manager Guy Whittingham, whose diligent and understated approach has been a welcome relief in Hampshire (and beyond), did his business early on in the window, getting his backroom staff sorted and bringing in a bundle of free agents, it has to be said – or perhaps whispered – that his side doesn’t necessarily look all that good. At least in respect to putting money down on them as champions-elect. Sure, he’s still adding to the squad and more funds might be made available through the season but it’s likely that teams will raise their game against Pompey and whether the likes of Joe Devera and Tom Craddock have it in them to respond in kind isn’t entirely clear.
Verdict: Chasing the Play-Offs
Rochdale
Keith Hill’s return to Dale towards the end of last season raised a few eyebrows. Did it indicate a lack of ambition or self-belief on Hill’s part? Perhaps it suggested that his assistant David Flitcroft, who stayed on to take the reins at Barnsley, was really the brains behind the Hillcroft act? Or was it in fact more about loyalty and Hill being unafraid of what people might say or think about his decision to return to Rochdale? Either way, it’s worked out pretty well for all parties, with Barnsley managing to stay up and Rochdale once again looking like they might challenge towards the upper reaches of a familiar division. Although key men Phil Edwards and Bobby Grant have left, Hill’s managed to bring in a good crop of young, yet reasonably battle-hardened players and in returning winger Matty Done he has a potential matchwinner on his hands. Question marks will persist regarding the lightness of Hill’s striking options after Grant’s move to Blackpool, but he’ll no doubt have his new man in place before long and supporters will expect to be back on the up after a few seasons in recession.
Verdict: Chasing the Play-Offs
Scunthorpe United
You’re only ever a Google search away from realising that things aren’t always quite as they seem at a particular club. Take Scunthorpe. On the face of things, it would appear that the Iron have just had a bad time of it of late, suffering two relegations in three seasons after the milk and honey of the Nigel Adkins years. But then you delve a little deeper and realise that there’s far more going on under the surface, in this case a messy boardroom power struggle between outgoing chairman Steve Wharton and his would-be replacement, boxing promoter Dennis Hobson [19], who in the event has ended up being overlooked in favour of an outsider, entrepreneur and former Gainsborough Trinity chair Peter Swann [20]. Against this backdrop, there’s been plenty of comings and goings as Brian Laws attempts to craft a team capable of resurrecting his career. So far, he’s relied largely on old pros in the form of Andy Dawson, Chris Iwelumo and Matt Sparrow, with Deon Burton seemingly set to join, too, in the coming days. Whether that’s what Scunny really need is open to debate, but these wise old heads should at least ensure that another relegation fight is out of the question.
Verdict: Middle of the Road
Southend United
Once again, Phil Brown has a look of desperation about him. Previously, he was so keen to get a job, any job [21], that he’d take to his local media centre whenever a managerial position became available. Oldham? They were in the Premier League once. Blackburn? Venky’s just needed someone who they could communicate with. Limerick? They’re the sleeping giants of the Irish league. In the end, Brown rolled up at Southend with a handful of games to spare last season. Where others might have dodged this particular ‘opportunity’, Brown clearly felt that he could work his thang on the sea but the six points gleaned from the 8 games he oversaw as manager last season suggests that the Shrimpers’ problems were a little more endemic than Brown might have initially estimated. Because it certainly wouldn’t have had anything to do with his ability as a coach… Pre-season has provided little succour for supporters with Brown trying – but failing – to use his media skills to supplement a thin-looking squad (no, Phil, Nicky Bailey isn’t even close to being in your league [22]). Instead, he’s had to make do with the scraps he’s inherited, Colchester castoffs and untried youngsters. Grim times.
Verdict: Looking Over Their Shoulders
Torquay United
Things were going so well. Martin Ling had carved out a winning side that were playing some good stuff. Bobby Olejnik was keeping them out of the net; Mark Ellis was an immovable object at centre half; and Eunan O’Kane, the envy of many a League 2 rival supporter, was pulling the strings in the middle. But then the inevitable happened and the club’s prized assets departed for shores new after the Gulls failed to win promotion from the play-offs for a second year in a row. Ling was left to revamp the squad with small scraps only and nothing was ever the same again. Key players Rene Howe and Brian Saah remained last term and Torquay continued to show glimpses of quality but it very nearly all ended in calamity after Ling departed, initially temporarily but in the end for good, due to a stress-related illness in February. Under the dour Alan Knill the Gulls managed to survive, just, but the misery of Knill’s Scunthorpe reign lingers on and with Howe and Saah both having now departed one suspects that it will be a long and hard season down in Torbay.
Verdict: Looking Over Their Shoulders
Wycombe Wanderers
There’s nothing wrong with this Wycombe team. Wanderers possess decent experience across the positions; they’ve got a likeable manager, even if he did always have a nasty streak as a player; and a couple of youngsters are coming through the ranks. But there’s little to get the neutral excited here and the Chairboys presently just have a bit of a run of the mill feel to them. Perhaps that’s one of the things with Trust ownership and the quest for sustainability. Whatever way you look at it, indifference seems to have cottoned on in Buckinghamshire with crowds way down from where they once were and Gareth Ainsworth’s hands have been tied to an extent [23] in his attempt to bring in new players this summer. Paris Cowan-Hall has come in as a direct replacement for Joel Grant, one of Wycombe’s best players last season, but – as any Plymouth fan will probably tell you – Cowan-Hall is sadly by no means as good as his name might suggest. A difficult season looms.
Verdict: Looking Over Their Shoulders
York City
A difficult side to call. York struggled as their first season back in the Football League wore on and Nigel Worthington has continued to redevelop the squad in order to suit his more traditional approach [24], bringing in the kinds of strikers and wingers who’ll be more at home in a direct 4-4-2. The quality of his signings has been pretty good; Ryan Jarvis, Wes Fletcher, Ryan Bowman and Sander Puri should all do well at Bootham and the recent return of Richard Cresswell, who did so well in a cameo loan stint at the end of last term, will have boosted confidence levels amongst Minstermen supporters going into the new season. But York’s hopes of moving to a new shared stadium with the city’s rugby league side still hang in the balance, with the project anything but signed and sealed [25], and the club’s more long-sighted fans might argue that the biggest battle is set to be played off the pitch this season.
Verdict: Chasing the Play-Offs
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